Closing Time-Every new beginning comes from some other beginings End

"Closing Time.  Every new beginning comes from some other beginings End"
- Semisonic, "Closing Time"

Today marks the end of an era, the day Risto Team (USAW weighlifting club) shuts its Maine training center and, some of its members, goes on the great American voyage to Florida.   Yes, the team is trading one Vacationland for another vacation land of sorts--reverse snowbirding this summer.


We, the weightlifting team, leave riding a synchronistic wind of change.  We did a lot right here in Maine, and now its time to go and spread the good word of weightlifting elsewhere.

When we came to Maine, there was no lifting in Maine. Ok, there was a powerlifting gym in Westbrook, Gilly's Gym in Waterville,   but nothing you would call a dedicated - heart and soul- weightlifting gym.  We were here long before crossfit dotted the land with boxes.

When we first came, it must have been over 25 year since a weightlifting meet had ever been held in Maine.  So little lifting was going on, that around 2010, Maine LWC was absorbed into the New England LWC, probably where it really belonged.

I first came here lifting for Coffee's Gym. I lifted again for East Coast Gold. Then, finally, I competed for Risto Team, which only made sense after a weightlifting oasis was built in Eliot, ME. Interestingly, Coffee's Gym also closed this weekend, sadly , for good.

In 2011, we held the first weightlifting meet in about 30+ years in Maine.  The legacy we left for Maine doesn't end there, there's a lot more:

1-We had the only National medalists from Maine whilst here
-- Me, Gwendolyn Sisto, too many gold, silver, and bronze medals at national level meets to count.  Yes, I am dead serious, I lost count
-- Gwendolyn Rojas- two National Youth Championships Golds (she only collects gold medals apparently)
-- Emily McNally - youth national championships bronze
--Amylynne Frankel- National Masters Silver

2- We trained olympic medalists right in Eliot, Maine
- Maryam Usman, trained for several months with us in Maine, Olympic Bronze Medalist
- Luz Mercedes Acosta, also trained a few months with us in Maine, Olympic Bronze Medalist
- Diego Salazar, trained multiple, multiple times with us in Maine, Olympic Silver Medalist
-Honorary mention- Dmitry Klokov, Olympic Silver Medalist, did his photo shoot for his klokovequipment.com launch right in our gym. He commented, "this IS a weightlifting gym" , probably the biggest honor we could get from him.

Klokov Russian-izing my start position at Risto Sports in Maine. Me, I'm like, "dude, I learned my starting position from Cuban National Coach Alfredo Gonzalez"  Who did it better Cubans or Russians? lol

3- We gave Maine the only people from Maine on National teams of any kind
- Gwendolyn Rojas competed at the Youth International invitational, and, ofcourse, brought home gold to Maine.
- Gwendolyn Sisto, World University Team whilst being a Maine resident.
-- funny story, at the time, I was going to MIT- Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  The friggin' intern at USAW actually changed the as entered national meet results to read "Maine Institute of Technology" , because she couldn't believe that a person from Maine would go to the real MIT.  Not sure if that was a Freudian slip on her behalf or says something about what she thinks of Maine-iacs.
- Gwendolyn Sisto , World Masters Games medalist
- Rob Morrison, World Masters Cup Champion

4- We gave Maine possibly the Only Maine person to ever hold an IWF world record
- Gwendolyn Sisto 2017 World Record Holder for 35-39, 63kg

5- One of only 3 2008 Olympic Trials athletes across every Olympic sport from Maine
- Gwendolyn Sisto, 53kg, 2008 Olympic Trials

6- Regional impact
We trained tons of people from across the globe right here in Maine. We, especially, had one of the best teams in New England.  Honestly, most people came up from the Boston and Rhode Island area to train with us.  There are many people who trained with us, only to start their own teams or keep lifting at a team closer to them.

In other words, there are several teams in New England that wouldn't have existed without us, because their coaches or key athletes- whether they like to admit or not-were trained by us.

Here's some of our contribution to the New England lifter National/International medals:
Melissa Siegel- Masters National Champion
Jessica Weisman - World Masters Champion, World Masters Games Medalist
Honorable Mention-  Kaiti Bennet, National Collegiates Medalist
Other people I am probably forgetting and will be pissed at me because I did
People we distanced trained in secret, and I can't disclose ;)
A bunch of people that will probably be added to this list soon (Russy, Giorgio Armani ;)


7. Local Eliot/ South Berwick impact
We trained an entire cohort of Marshwood high school wrestlers in Olympic Lifting.  These kids went on to win the state champions, multiple kids were all-Americans.

When I asked them why they didn't tell other kids from adjacent school districts about us, one  kid notes , "we don't want our secret to get out" .  Good for our local school district, not so good for business lol.

8. We increased the diversity in our locale by probably 200% everytime we had a training camp
I am so serious when I say Maine is probably the whitest place I have ever lived.  I remember dropping my daughter off to her first day of Kindergarten thinking, "I see blonde people".   Everyone is either some kind of white- like Northern European white- or Native American. Oh, and almost all the white people claim to be part Native American.  I am not making this shit up. Good thing the "racial appropriation" police haven't taken up shop in Portland, Maine as the have in Portland, Oregon.  Ok, there are "black people" in Maine, just almost all of them were born in Somalia.  Maine is home to many Somalian Muslim refugees.  And, we all get along =)

Maine people seem to have been exposed to so little diversity that they tend not to be racist at all and find new cultures as a novelty.  This is also a sentiment that a "real Maine" person relayed to me.  (Apparently, if 3 generations of your family weren't born here, then you can never really be "from Maine", thus I must seek out a "real Maine" person's opinion for legitimacy.)

Getting back on topic....
Just look at our Team photos. Completely unintentionally, we are probably one of the most diverse teams in the USAW if your consider our diversity make-up versus diversity make-up of our location.
On top of that, we also tend to train a lot of athletes from across South America - Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Panama , Cuba, etc. We brought Dr Herrera here. And of course , we've hosted the entire coaching staff from Kazakhstan(central Asia).

Outside of Olympic Medalists, we've had Youth and Junior World Champion Neisi Dajomes lift in our center, her coach Mayra Hoyos,   Pam AM champions Johnny Andica, Elio Guerra, and Carlos Andica lift with us. And, Rocio Navarro of Panama.

So, everytime we have a big training session, you will probably find the highest concentration in York county, Maine of Asians, Latinos, Black, Jews, LGBTQ, and other so-called minorities right in our gym.  Again, I don't know how it all worked out this way, it just did, and I think its cool.

In a nutshell, we did a ton for the state of Maine when it comes to establishing a weightlifting legacy. I'm not sure anyone in Maine actually recognizes this.  Although people in the area seemed to appreciate us, most never took substantial time to hang out with us. Ok, they came to a seminar or two, and, yes, I do appreciate this.  But, dude, we were RIGHT HERE. WE were right in the same state. For the first time, there were actual weightlifting people driving distance to you, and you only stopped by a handful of times. I mean WTF people?  You know, when I was a kid,  I would have died to have lived so close to a gym that was regularly pumping olympians in and out of its doors.   Do you know how many people have approached me with the same comment, " Ohh you're leaving. I'm so sad. I should have came by sooner."

On the positive, though some lifters are leaving Maine, some remaine holding the torch in their crossfit boxes and garage gyms.  I hope, for Maine's sake, USAW-elite-level lifting will carry-on, carry-on.

As for Florida, I know you guys already have a few good gyms, and you actually have weightlifting as a high school sport. I'm sure there's room for one more.   I think the space coast can use a pure Olympic lifting beacon. It's a big state.  Glad to be here lifting unattached for myself.

My non-lifting thoughts on Maine:
Maine is an awesome place.  It is gorgeous , in all 3 of its seasons- Fall, Winter, and Summer (we don't have a spring...its either snowing or hot during "spring").  The coast is incredible. Its so majestic; it has character with every jagged, rocky-edged cliff.   We have lots of pine trees and moose. Though I still haven't seen a moose. I never lived anywhere before where access to nature and free-nature based activities were so readily available.  In winter, you can ice skate on a pond or ski down a little hill.  The summer and fall the ocean is rife with activity. You can go to some revolutionary war fort or 17th century house or park-like forest and just enjoy walking around in nature, peaking at the ocean or the river with your dog.  You can really have unfettered, free adventures.  If your backyard is big enough, you could go shooting right outside.  And, the place abounds with organic and locally grown food. Traffic is nil, or at least incredibly predictable. The tourists will never learn that there is zero traffic before noon and after 5:30 on a summer Sunday afternoon.  Maine is utopia----almost.

So, I will miss Maine.

I need to leave though.  We were just kind of stagnating in Maine. Like, we were at a good level, and if we wanted to see a revolutionary change in our progress then we needed to change. Secondly, there is a metaphysical force sweeping me to Florida , or , maybe, France. And, that is something for me to write about another time, perhaps, when you are more ready to hear it.

Maine, It's been good. See ya around bae.

Goals, goals, goals, it's all about goals

I just got done with the American Open. This was the first time I went to this meet just to do a total, and not necessarily to compete. For me, being a competitor, it was a weird feeling.

Regardless, I had clear objectives for the meet, and I was not about to let something like my ego get in the way of it.

Here were my goals:

1. Qualify for the 2017 World Master's Games in April 2017
- 2 lifts, that's it. 1 good snatch and 1 good clean and jerk. That is all I need
2. Compete for first time in 2 years at a National Meet
3. Actually talk to people
-- not kidding, 90% of my competitions, I'm so focused on winning that I never get to actually talk to my friends or network.
4. Stay healthy

Stretch goals
1. Do up to 80%
- This was the preset limit for this macrocycle**. No maxxing out, no going above 80%

Super stretch goals
1.Use Jedi mind tricks to convince coach to go heavier and win a medal
- hmmm, might be counter to my goal of peaking in April
- note to self, lift more such that my 75% is the winning total at all national meets

My goal for 2017 is to win the World Masters Games and to break all the World Records.

I actually never really thought about lifting as a Master.  To be honest, when I found out that the World Master Games were in New Zealand, I was like, "sign me up!".  Let me tell you, I want to go and see the "Hobbits" in New Zealand so bad.  You know, I just spent 3 days in Orlando and could care less about dropping $100 to see Mickey Mouse or Harry Potter at the theme parks.  Now,  for the chance to see the land of the Hobbits and Lord of the Rings movies, that I will take any excuse to fly half way around the world. The actual sets of the Shire are still there!*

Now, the only qualifier in the qualifying period for the World Master Games that I was eligible to lift in was the 2016 American Open. I was simply too young to compete at any of the other qualifiers. The last thing I wanted to do was to show-up at the American Open and just train through it. I am in a part of my macrocycle where maxxing out would just mess things up.

Personally, I am a competitor. Having me go to a meet to not compete is insanity to me.  It actually took a lot of discipline and restraint to do just enough to qualify and not too much to stay within my intensity zone for this microcycle.  I even purposely registered at the minimum entry total so as not to be tempted to go heavier; it also afforded me to open way under 80%.

Platform approach for 100kg. The expression tells it all- to compete without really competing.  Nice Photo from Lifting Life by Andy Blaida. Turns out Andy once had a pair of Ristos and gave them to one of his lifters..so years later, his pair of Risto weightlifting shoes are still in circulation. 

I am sure there are people reading this thinking, " What's the point of weightlifting if sometimes you are not going to even try to lift your best".

Well, in lifting life, you need to decide - are you a competitor or are you a weightlifter? If you are a weightlifter first, then just lifting for the sake of lifting is enough. The joy of lifting the bar over your head is more than satisfying. Now, if you're a competitor, then its more about hitting specific goals. Which competitions do I want to win? Win by how much? Specifically, how much do I want to lift this year at my peak competition?

I tell you what-- going to this competition with a completely different mindset and set of stakes lead me to some learning.

Its not about where you start, but where you finish -- well, sort of not really

I can't tell you how many times I have heard weightlifting coaches say, "it's not about where you start, its about where you finish."

Well, yes and no. At a normal competition, starting 1-3% lower than planned isn't such a big deal. Most people at an advanced level can take a 4-5kg jump on their second attempt if needed.

Now, if you are in a situation, like myserlf, picking a lift >10% below your real openers, then it gets more tricky.

For example, I opened super light in the snatch.  I wanted to take at least a 7kg jump to my second attempt.  My coach, keeping goal #4 in mind, was not having that. His point of view was "Stay healthy. Just take a moderate jump and do six lifts".  Plus, there's the other dilemma of there being 30 attempts between taking a 7kg jump or 15+ attempts for taking a 4kg jump.

Well, guess what, both options kind of sucked. So, we went with the conservative 4kg jump.  I had at least 15 attempts to wait out.  I am very fortunate that, normally, I lift towards the end of the A Session and have never waited more than 3-4 attempts ever.  Waiting >15 attempts was insane.  We dropped down to like 55kgs and kept taking snatches to keep me warm.

Coming out for what was normally an easy 77kg snatch seemed ridiculous after I had been in the warm-up room over 30 minutes.  I was getting impatient and flustered. I complained to my coach that I didn't want to play this game of take one lift then sit for 30 minutes. I let my mind drift out of the Zone.  Needless to say, I badly missed my second attempt-like not even close.  It felt like missing the bar-- should just not happen.   For my 3rd attempt, I only had like 5 attempts to wait. I got my shit together thinking to myself, "Gwen, you do this lift in your sleep. Just do it".  This one was a much easier snatch, still I missed it. I was out of the zone.

This lead to some interesting strategies for the clean and jerk.

Strategy
You can control the situation or let it control you.

By the time clean and jerks rolled around, I was 50% at my goal. I had done 1 snatch as needed; now, all I needed was 1 good clean and jerk.

I was not going to jeapordize my 1 good lift for any reason, especially, being at the mercy of other coaches moving their lifters attempts up and down.

I realized I had one advantage no one else had. I've totaled 202kg before, most of the lifters in my session had never done over 180kg, and I only needed a paltry 82kg clean and jerk to hit my qualification goals.

So, how do I get control back?  1. Lowered my opener such that I would be the first person to open the session, Then, 2.  take over a 10kg jump for my second attempt.

If I opened with something ridiculously light, I could do very few warm-ups- say 4-5 reps.  Then, if I took a large enough jump, I would have 30+ attempts until my second attempt.  This would give me plenty of time to rest, then warm-up again to something a little bit closer to a real starting weight.

Well, the plan worked out incredibly well. My opener was ridiculously easy, and making it had taken all the pressure off the rest of my lifts.  I then jumped 13 kilos to 95kg (it was mischievous fun just to see the panic that ensued after I took above the expected 2-5kg jump..sorry, not sorry, to my coaching friends in the warm-up room).

I probably should have went 100kg for my second attempt.  Here's why: As planned, I had plenty of time to warm-up to 95kg. However, a bunch of coaches had then moved their athletes' third attempts to 96kg. This then put me back in the game of waiting a long time between my second and third attempt.

I opted to go 100kg as I did not want to wait to the last lift of the session if I took say a 6 or 8kg jump. Once again, I did not do so well with the long wait and racked the 100kg out forward.

Aside from using this competition as an opportunity to apply some unorthodox attempt selection strategies, it also showed me that I need to get better at real-world competition situations such as having more than 2-3 attempts between my lifts  --you never know when that situation might arise again.

Later that weekend, I watched the men's 85kg session. I was impressed with how some of the lifters , like James Tatum, waited many attempts between their first and second attempts and still came out to make big lifts.  Here's a photo of James with a close 182kg Clean and jerk on his way to winning the USAW American Open. <  Yes, he is wearing a pair of the Tiburon Risto Sports Weightlifting shoes. Yes, I chose this photo because of the perfect lighting on the shoes and its 6 red plates ...  >

Here's James Tatum winning the 2016 American Open in Men's 85kg. This was a very close lift with 182kg clean and jerk. I'm sure he'll do even more soon! Yes, he won a very tough competition in his very own Risto Sports Tiburon weightlifting shoes. Photo by Gwendolyn Sisto.

It made me, again, reflect on the fact that, yes, it would be good for me to increase my ability to hit lifts on the competition platform after long breaks between attempts.

On my other goals:
Hey, I can give myself a little slack. I posted a total at my first National meet in 2 years. I also took the biggest jump of my competitive career ever - a 13kg jump between first and second attempts-- and nailed the lift. My elbows held up just fine ( The two year anniversary of blowing out my right elbow at the 2014 AO is tomorrow. You can memorialize the moment by sending me gluten free cookies lol=), and, overall, I stayed healthy.  

And, yes, I did , finally get to socialize a bit more at this competition. There were so many "facebook friends" I got to actually meet in person and become "real" friends.  There were even some serrendipitous moments like seeing my friend Tim Mcrae , a 2016 USAW Hall of Fame inductee, for the first time in years.  I am really starting to appreciate the rich and amazing network of friends I've made through the sport of weightlifting; probably why I dedicate myself to improving knowledge the sport.



________________
*For people who are not familiar with sarcasm-- Yes, I know New Zealand isn't actually MiddleEarth LOL
** If you are wondering what a macrocycle and microcycle are, I am coming out with a book on the Soviet System in the next few weeks. Its written at a level that both newcomers/beginners and experienced coaches can get something out of it.
*** James Tatum is wearing the current model of the risto sports tiburon " lifters " or  weightlifting shoes.  He joins many other well know lifters who have won championships in these shoes such as Neisi Dajomes, Carlos Andica, Maryam Usman, Rocio Navarro, Lesbia Cruz  ... plus Dmitry Klokov in exhibition post competitive career.

Of Weightlifters Passed- the persistence of memory

Is it normal that a bunch of your weightlifting friends and acquaintances will die in their early 30s? And is it normal not to fully know why?

I just found out former weightlifter and dear friend of mine Amanda Wilson just passed away. 

To understand my disbelief, we have to talk about USAW’s Junior Squad. 

Back in the late 90’s, there was this thing called Junior Squad.  Every year, the best junior lifters in the country were sent all expenses paid to the United States Olympic Training Center (OTC) in Colorado Springs, Colorado for a 2 week training camp.  There was a boy’s camp and a girl’s camp held at separate times.  Under the guidance of the now famous Coach Burgener , or “Coach B”, the girls camp trained. This was also in the era when Lynn Jones, Dragomir Ciroslan, and Bob Morris coached at the OTC. Every other year, we were given a new USA warm-up suit with “National Junior Team” printed on the front of it and “USA” printed on the back of it.

I made every team from the first ever full team in 1997, until 2000. By 2001, I was at Georgia Tech studying my ass off and not bothering to compete at Junior nationals. 

 

Several of those junior squads, I met or even formed relationships with a number of lifters who would impact me forever.  Several of them would die before the age of 35, several of unclear causes. Lifters from this late 90s era with whom I crossed paths that befell this strange fate of an early death included: Corey Wilkes, Robert Murphy, Andrew Garcy, Anthony Martin, and, now , Amanda Wilson.

My dear friend Amanda Wilson is the latest to have passed on. Though we had communicated for years, even recently, the last time I had saw her was at the 2008 US Olympic Trials held at GA Tech in Atlanta. She was no longer competing and came to see her friends, including myself, compete.

Interestingly, also in 2008, was the last time I would see my friend Andy Garcy.  I competed at a final World University qualifier at the US OTC in late 2008.  At the time, he had coached a youth lifter female who was practically cleaning double bodyweight (almost 60kg weighing almost 30 something kg, if I recall??). Yes, I think he would have went one to be a great coach.

It is funny how memory works.  Recently, I made a new friend that bared only the very slightest resemblance to my friend Andy Garcy, maybe he conjured only the slightest of analogous feelings.  Days later, suddenly, I could remember in detail the face of Andy, strangely associated with my new friend.  A month ago, I wouldn’t’ have been able to do so.  And, now, just days later, my friend Amanda passes.

As memory seems to be more of a network , a web of slightly related topics linked together- something hardly linear-- I might as well discuss my two unrelated friends in a related way, in the way that I associate with them in my mind.

The first time I really got to know Amanda was at the 1998 Junior Squad. It was my second JR squad, so the OTC didn’t quite contain the same magic it first had.  We got along pretty well.  We liked opposing baseball teams. We eventually went to opposing colleges. We would make jokes about eachother’s states.  She liked preppy cloths; I ‘m more rock and roll, and, nowadays, I often enjoy wearing Ralph Lauren to be ironic and live out a New England fantasy.  But, you know what, she was always someone that I could go and talk to. Like if you’re in a crowd of people, and you’re not sure to hang out with, or who to talk to, Amanda was always a person I could hang with. Like that person that’s there for you and won’t leave you out there alone. A person that will always be your friend and not treat you like a passing fad.  She wasn’t one of those annoying fake nice people, or fake-caring people; she was authentic.  

She was a very talented lifter.  When I was at GA Tech, I went to watch her at a weightlifting competition that CJ Stockel had put on in college park Atlanta. She did something like 160kg or 165kg total that would have put her on the junior world team (I was sad to see that she didn’t do quite as a well a few weeks later at Junior nationals).  Amanda could really lift well when she was on, and she was pretty damn strong too.   She was lifting for Coffee’s Gym.  I always looked-up to the strong women of Coffee’s Gym; probably why, I would at one point compete for Coffee’s Gym (she actually encouraged it years before I did).  I would see her at multiple Junior Squads as well as multiple times in Georgia by virtue of going to GA Tech and here living a couple hours away. By the way, don’t get your hopes up my Ramblin’ wrecks—she was a UGA fan (her only flaw ?;).

Andy was also a good person. He was a talented weightlifter, and he just so happened to be gorgeous. Seriously, I can substantiate the gorgeous claim with fact: once Rolling Stone did an article on athletes that trained at the OTC, and, guess what, Andy happened to be one of the few athletes profiled. At the time, every month a Rolling Stone magazine came to my house, and , holy shit, one day, I opened-up Rolling Stone to see Andy staring back at me!  

He became my friend when I went to Junior Squad, as he was a resident athlete at the OTC. The first Junior squad I ever went to was the inaugural full girls team junior squad in 1997. Going to the OTC for the first time was like magic!  Wow, I got to lift where Wes Barnett and Pete Kelley and Tim McRae lifted. I got to hang out with some of the resident athletes- wow, could they be the next Olympians too?!

This was before I realized that not everyone who lives at the OTC ever becomes an Olympic athlete or even an Olympic medalist for that matter. That was before I realized that there were many much more mythical weightlifting places in the world. Either way, I really looked-up to every weightlifter who lived there. For a brief, moment in USAW history, they were like the weightlifting chosen ones in America…yeah, that didn’t last long. It seems this way when you are an adolescent, but as you become wise to world, you learn, once again, that they are just human and other mythical human creatures exist outside the walls of the OTC.  Even Peschalov once told me that he was “only human”, and he was one of the greatest Olympic champions of the 1990’s/2000’s.

Regardless, Andy was my friend.  He was always nice and respectful to me, and I don’t think he ever got enough credit for how much of a good person he was.  Again, much like Amanda, he was an authentic person.  I watched my first ever Adam Sandler movie with Andy and my friend Catherine at the OTC—this was when Adam Sandler movies were still a thing.  I will forever remember the feelings of watching “Happy Gilmore” for the first time with them; it was one of Adam Sandler’s masterpieces, even better than “Billy Madison”.  Ironically, Amanda and I did see and Adam Sandler movie together with the Jr squad kids: “Big Daddy”.    Andy was also the reason I had met Blaine Wilson, a quasi-famous American gymnast who recounted stories to Andy in the cafeteria as I listened on.  The following year I casually knodded to Blaine as Amanda introduced herself, noting that they shared a last name though they were unlikely related (she really wanted to meet him). Anyhow, like Amanda, I would also see Andy at another subsequent junior squad and national competitions. Then it would be several years till I would see him a few last times in 2008. 

As I reflect on my weightlifting friends, it is probably why I don’t write much about American weightlifters, because its too personal. I don’t like to write about my close friends, nor really the OTC. Perhaps, because, the mystique I once had for places like the OTC had long left my soul like a mist evaporating in the morning sunlight.  To me, the OTC had become just another place devoid of that magical realism type qualities you only find in a Gabriel Garcia Marquez book. Maybe the OTC was special for a tiny speck of time when just the right combination of people were there.

Statistics- How good are the US Women versus the World?

Weightlifting is full of data.  We can do many statistical analyses to interpret who our best lifters are and how they stack up versus the rest of the world with readily available continuous data.

In celebration of the Olympic year, this article examines the distribution of female weightlifter totals by weight class, and the percentile which the current top US woman in each weight class would score.  Using descriptive statistics, we can understand the level of competitiveness the US women and have insight on which females are best positioned to medal at the Olympics.

Method:
The dataset for each weight class was obtained from the IWF Olympic individual qualification rankings.  Specifically, the IWF dataset for individual qualification includes only the highest total registered for an athlete from every Olympic qualification event since 2014 through the present.  Further, there is one athlete total per weight class per country-- it is not the complete ranking list with every single athlete from every country that has competed internationally.   So, for example, Jenny Arthur is the highest totaling US 75kg in the last 2 years, so only her total out of all US 75's that competed internationally, is shown.  This is actually a better way to do the rankings since a country can only enter a maximum of two athletes per weight category, and, at the Olympics, no country can send a full team.  In effect, it is highly unlikely that a country with prospects of medaling in multiple classes will send 2 athletes in the same weight class. Outliers were not cleaned form the data as these stats are from actual people who lifted at actual weightlifting championships.  Plus, it would not be rational to remove the top lifter or even the worst lifter from the data; it makes physical sense that they should be outliers in many cases.

For comparison, the current USAW Olympic ranking list was used to compare US totals to the World ranking list.  To be consistent with the IWF ranking list, the top US total from each woman's weight class was compared to the IWF list, and the percentile rank was calculated. 

Results and Analysis

What the world looks like on the whole by weight class:

First, let us take a look at the distribution of totals by weight class across the world.

Here is a dotplot of each total in each weight class. The dotplots show the frequency at which each total occurs.  So a really high stack of dots means that multiple lifters hit a certain total; itt is the same idea as a histogram.  The dotplot is a little bit better visual to see frequencies, hence it is utilized.

 

The data tells us which weight classes have very large variation and hint at whether the data is normal (normality test must be done to confirm).

For example, the 48kg weight class seems to have the tightest distribution of the classes. This may be the effect of bodyweight --that there is no class lower than 48kgs for which to compete in, hence athletes can only move up and not down from this weight class.  Interstingly, the data is marginally normal; an Anderson-Darling normality test yields a .06 p-value.

In terms of medals, the data shows a clear favorite for the gold medal evidenced by the top total being in an echelon of its own.  Silver and bronze, however, are anybody's game as the athletes are so tightly clustered between 2nd through 8th place.

On the other hand, the 75+kg weight class has the most variability. Although at a first glance, the data looks non-normal, an Anderson-Darling normality test shows it is a normal dataset with a p-value of .307. 

More interesting are the top 2 totals in the 75+kg class- Tatiana Kashirina's 348kg total and Lulu Zhao's 334kg.  Kashirina's total is almost a full standard deviation from 3rd rank (Graboetskaya of Kazakhstan).  It can be implied that there are two lifters truly vying for Gold and silver at the Olympics, assuming both lifters are healthy, compete, and total at the Olympics.  Such can be said for the bronze medal between the 3rd, 4th, and 5th ranked athletes who are grouped around a 300kg total.  The remaining athletes are around 280kg or less. 

Here is where 75+kg, gets really interesting-- again, countries can only send a max of 4 female athletes to the Olympics. Its highly possible that not all the athletes in the 300kg total grouping will even show-up at the Olympics. It then makes the bronze medal anybody's game around the 280kg total mark.

The 75kg class is another fascinating weight class because it just doesn't have the same depth as the other middle weight classes (53,58, 63, 69,75) . Like 75+s, it has clusters of high totals, then a whole chunk of athletes over  a standard deviation away from the top. It is one of the easier weight classes.

69 women's appears to be the most competitive class for winning an Olympic Gold medal as there are 6 athlete totals in proximity to the first place total.

How the US women rank

This May, US women will be competing at the Olympic Trials in Salt Lake City, Utah for Olympic slots. The USA currently has 3 Olympic slots for women. 1 slot has already been designated to our top 75kg lifter, Jenny Arthur.  Mattie Rogers and Sarah Robles are ranked in the remaining 2 slots, per USAW's site.

The data can be examined rather easily for: (1)our best lifters in each weight class score versus the rest of the world, and (2) which athletes would be the top 3 in the USA based on their percentile rank in their weight class.

1. How US Female lifters score in their weight class on the IWF rankings

Per the below table, Mattie Rogers scores the highest across all weight classes with an 86th percentile rank.  Sarah Robles is in the 84th percentile, and Jenny Arthur is in the 82nd percentile.

The next closest lifter, Lucero, is in the 65th percentile. Interestingly, Morghan King scores equally well as a 53kg or a 48kg with  58th and 56th percentiles respectively.

2. Athletes best positioned to medal, or place the highest
The data shows us that Rogers, Robles, and Arthur are really in a grouping of their own at this point. The data supports the US ranking system which has all 3 currently projected to make the 2016 Olympic Team.

That being said-- this can all change should any of the other lifters on this list, or even any lifter competing at Nationals for that matter, have a huge Personal Record. The lower weight classes are more sensitive to change as, well, the totals are smaller. So, Morghan King might have the best chance of upsetting the 3rd ranked Olympic team spot should she have a big PR. For example, a 188kg total as a 48kg would put her in the 84th percentile.  However, by the USAW Olympic Games qualifying totals, King only needs 174kg to bump Rogers.

In this case, one could argue that the USAW ranking system has some deficiencies, which will always happen when rankings are based solely on percent of an average qualifying total. As mentioned in previous articles on this site, the population cannot be described by an average alone.

Weight Class	N	Maximum	Mean	StDev	Minimum	Q1	Median	Q3	Top US female		Percentile
48	52	205	164.13	23.07	91	153.5	163.5	180.75	170	KING	56th
53	58	233	178.43	25	104	157.75	181.5	194	184	KING*	58th
58	62	252	183.35	36.09	75	165	190.5	205	199	LUCERO	65th
63	61	261	195.66	35.95	75	180	197	214	206	MYERS	63rd
69	57	268	208.02	33.5	115	190.5	209	230	238	ROGERS	86th
75	53	292	215	35.93	120	193.5	217	238.5	244	ARTHUR	82nd
75+	46	348	228.85	54.37	126	189.25	232	264.5	279	Robles	84th

The last table is the USAW current Olympic Ranking for female's. The USAW ranking method based on averages has the following athletes in spots 1 through 3:  Robles, Rogers, King.  Note Arthur is not even in the Top 3 per this method.    This differs from the percentile method where, again, the ranking would be Rogers, Robles, and Arthur per the same data.

PATH 1	PATH 2
RANK	RANK	NAME	CREDITS	<=2000	CAT	BWT	COMP	TOTAL	OG/100%	%
1	1	Robles	2	1988	75+	148.01	15WWC	279	290	96.21%
2	2	Rogers	2	1995	69	67.74	16NJCOQ	238	256.4	92.82%
3	3	King	4	1985	48	47.73	15WWC	170	186.6	91.10%
4	*	ARTHUR	3	1993	75	74.65	15WWC	244	269.2	90.64%
5	4	Winters	1	1993	48	47.97	15WWC	165	186.6	88.42%
6	5	Chan	0	1987	53	52.84	15AO	187	212	88.21%
7		King	4	1985	53	50.44	16NJCOQ	184	212	86.79%

Conclusions

Based on the current US female totals, the data clearly shows that the US female athletes with the highest percentile score are Mattie Rogers, Sarah Robles, and Jenny Arthur in that order.  This implies that these would also be the USA's best chances of medaling, although a more complex model can be created to forecast medal potential.  Just going by raw ranking, all three lifter would place about 8th or 9th on the IWF ranking list. And, considering that countries cannot send full teams to the Olympics, these 3 women would be likely to score even higher at the Olympics assuming they do the same or greater total.

 

Secondly, the data supports the USAW decision to give Jenny Arthur an early qualification to the US Olympic Team.

 

Thirdly, the data tells us that the USAW may have a more accurate and fair model of ranking their athletes should they use percentiles of the IWF ranking list and not percent of an average.  The current ranking system gives a positive bias to the 48kg weight class and gives an negative bias to the 69kg weight class among others.  

 

Sarah Robles at the 2012 Olympics,
singlet by Risto Sports, official 2012 sponsor of podium attire

 

USAW International Team qualification- how to avoid future team selection controversy

The Olympics is in August 2016, 9 months away. There are 10 International Weightlifting Federation Olympic Qualifiers left -- ANYTHING can and Will Happen.

There are a lot of good lifters out there who may have missed teams for whatever reason and can burst on to the scene. Just look at Charis Chan; she just broke an American Record, and,a year ago,  no one would guessed she would be a 2015 American record holder.  Or , who ever heard of Angelo Bianco before the American Open? In effect, if we really want to improve the level of lifting in the USA and have the best teams possible, then we need to have qualification systems that can handle this.

In effect, making qualification procedures that we, the USAW, can actually follow is critical.

Back in 2012,  I had written a series of articles on the USA qualification procedures, their opportunity areas, and ways they can be improved. I had done a series of posts starting with this one and part 2.

Our qualification systems are not much different than what we did in the 1990’s.

In the mid 90’s, in non-olympic years, there was one major international team for seniors and juniors. And, teams only had one or two qulaifiers, with one mandatory qualifier that everyone had to attend. The national meets would be published in a calendar and would not be changed-probbaly because no one used the internets for USAW news back then, so it would be expensive to have to republish and mail out new competition schedules.This always created a huge weakness for developing lifters, in that if a lifter missed a team, they would have to wait another year for any opportunity, and because qualifiers were every 6 months, there were no big competitions for developing athletes to prove themselves and gain experiences between years. I believe part of this was due to the fact that there were so few lifters that it didn’t matter. On the other hand, I also believe part of the system was due to political reasons, that it made the team selection very predictable and more controlled. 

So, now, 20 years later, we are kind of doing the exact samething. And guess what, our men and women teams were ranked higher internationally in the 90’s. In other words, we are doing “the same old shit” and getting less and less results.  The rest of the world is improving faster.

Minor tweaks we made to our antiquated qualification system

Ok, USAW did make a few minor tweaks.  Once upon a time in 1998, several OTC lifters did not post a high enough qualifying total to make a world team at nationals, so USAW added a secondary qualifier which actually had an unexpected affect of lifters like Suzanne Leathers and Oscar champlin making the world team.

This practice of adding secondary qualifiers with only a few weeks of notice re-emerged in the late 2000’s.  The biggest frustration is that if you don’t regularly talk with someone on the USAW board, as a lifter or coach, you would have no idea that these secondary qualification opportunities would come-up until you already decided to max out at a primary qualifier.

Since 2013, secondary qualifiers have always been added to the USAW calendar; to the point, that you could just expect that there would be some last chance qualifier.  For example, for years, the Arnold was not a qualifier , then at the last minute , it would be announced that totals would be used for international team selection as it is a drug-tested meet.  And, lifting in special trials sessions wasn’t really enforced.  Again, people like me who don’t follow USAW gossip, would not know until half way through our training cycles that there would be another qualification chance.

In 2014, it was published on the USAW website , to paraphrase, that lifters who haven’t been ranked in the previous 6 months and qualified for an international team(ie came out of nowhere) may or may not be eligible.  And, wording was added in ~2015 that lifters lifting at secondary qualifiers had to lift in special trials sessions. NOTE- in the past, anyone could enter the secondary qualifier without pre-qualifying for a specials trails session. Or, rather, special trials sessions weren’t really enforced.

 Getting to the Sarah Robles controversy and why our rules caused it

This "trials session" rule appeared to be enforced when Leo Hernandez lifted a total sufficient to qualify him for the Pan Am Games at the Arnold, yet wasn’t put on the Pan Am Games team. I would guess because he fell into the “not on the radar for 6 months” category (he became a US citizen several months before the Pan Am Games) .

A few months later, Sarah Robles, fresh off the end of her doping suspension, competes as a Collegiate competitor at the University nationals. She posts a total at a drug-tested [correction-I was informed that the University Nationals and trials sessions were not drug-tested at all] meet to make her the number one female in the country.  She did not compete in the special trials sessions, probably, because her ban ended after the US Nationals qualification period; therefore, she couldn’t compete at nationals to “qualify” for the special trials session. 

On one hand, I agree with people who say that, “its not fair that Sarah was put on the team and, hence, bumped Marissa Klingseis off the team, because USAW didn’t follow the rules the enforced earlier in the year”.   On the other hand, Sarah score the most points out of any female on the US world Team at a competition for Olympic spots AND, in prior years, trials sessions were not enforced, THUS USAW  acted predictably. In other words, it was in line with how USAW acted in past years to meet a strategic need.

This leads us to – what is the real problem (hint- its not Sarah Robles) and what is the solution!

WHAT IS THE REAL PROBLEM WITH USAW’s qualification procedures and how they can be IMPROVED

1.       Make rules we can actually follow 100% of the time

One thing I learned at MIT, is that most rules are guidelines, and the key to life is understanding when a rule is really a rule. Having special “trials sessions” is probably going to fall into the guidelines area.  We should accept totals from any drug tested meet to pick teams. Adding tricky little nuances will just lead to disputes over interpretation, so keep it simple.

 

2. Change the qualification mechanisms to Account for the unprecedented depth in each weight class

When there are only 1 or 2 people per weight class that have a good chance at making a team, its probably ok to have one qualifier followed by a hastily announced second qualifier, because you have a tiny pool of athletes and the secondary qualifier is really just for someone who bombed out or had a bad day at the first qualifier.

When you have 3 or more people per weight class who could actually qualify for a team, then things are really interesting.  Having additional qualifiers means those people lurking on the podium in second or third position, might just need another peak in their cycle to eclipse who is on top. This will in turn drive competitive results up.

As I have written at length before,  other countries which have had more success in weightlifting than the USA in the last 20 years have a completely different outlook on qualifying for National Teams.

2a. The formal method
For example, in Colombia, lifters are chosen from a mixture of results at national competitions and training results.

Lifters must compete at national championships. There are tests at the site of the national team training camp.  Lifters can show-up at the national team training camps and vy for a spot on the team

The teams for international competitions are not chosen until the very last minute.  Lifters are chosen based on their performance at training camps right before the major championship.



2b.  The lifter pool method
Countries like Kazakhstan have pools of lifters training with different teams. Athletes can make teams based on either controlled workouts (tests) at the training camps. Or, athletes who train with less prestigious teams can be selected form their results at national competitions.  Note, the athletes at the more prestigious training sites may not have to compete at a national competition at all as their training is so closely monitored and they are regularly tested.

 

2c. What might actually work in the USA
Because weightlifters do not receive a salary to train in weightlifting (as lifters do in places like Colombia or Kazakhstan), selecting athletes from just training camps might not work. what might work are frequent drug-tested events.  For example, we could hold 2 events per quarter AND make them open to anyone who posts a qualifying total at a USAW sanctioned meet.

We sort of already do this-- the issue is many of our national meets are age or demographic restricted - such as Junior nationals, Youth nationals, and Collegiate nationals. 

I recommend we make open qualifier sessions with very high entry totals at all the age/demographic restricted meets because - well most of our world team is over 21 years old and not in college.  If anything, this would make qualifying for teams more fair for people over 21 ( Yes, I said it, junior lifters have an unfair qualifying advantage over senior lifters. We had 1 female and 1 male junior lifter on our world team, they had more opportunities to post qualifying totals by virtue of their age. If you think juniors should have an advantage because of their age, then I pose to you: is there much difference between someone who is 20 and a junior vs someone who is 21 and a senior.....? )

Does this make sense? We could have a drug-tested event every  1-3 months where anyone with a big enough qualifying total can compete and get selected to a team.This would make weightlifting exciting and more interesting. Also, in ligt if the fact that Sarah Robles was selected to an international team at a non-drug tested event, USAW has set a precedent to mine lifters from non-drug tested sanctioned competitions.

 

Then.... we could even have a final selection camp only for the very most important competitions , like the Olympics. Just think about 2012 when Holley Mangold had a terrible wrist injury and still competed when any of our top 63's would have placed higher by virtue of the startlist.

And that brings me to my next point...

 

3. Set qualifying standards based on world ranking list distribution

We need to understand that totals rise and fall on a predictable cycle.  In a 4 year Olympic cycle, the highest totals are seen the year before the Olympics. The Olympics is actually about as competitive as year 2 in the "quadrennium" because the number of entries are limited.

This has a main effect:  the super-light and super-heavy weight class biases ...

In the first 2 years of the Olympic quadrennium, the 48kg class and the 75+kg are some of the easiest classes to score points. They have less depth the first couple years.

By year 3, the final Olympic qualification year, countries looking to score some easy points flood the 48kg and 75+kg class with lifters, making these classes crazy more competitive than the first 2 years, and duping countries like the USA who , basing their qualifiers on the 2 previous years, send 2 48's thinking they would actually score a lot of points. 

In the Olympic year, these 2 classes have insane totals needed to medal, that sending any lifter in this class that is not in the top 5% of totals is  basically a waste because the chance of medaling is slim to none. 

So, my point is, you can easily plot distributions of the world ranking list every year and see what quartile your lifters fall in. For example, in 2015, this would have probably shifted us to send more women in the middle to heavyweight classes than in the lowest weight classes.

For example, if Sarah Robles is able to hit Cheryl Haworth level numbers or more, then she might have a real chance of medaling in 75+kg as that would put her in the top end of the 75+ distribution (I think she can do it with her new coach ;).  Our other supers, would not be high enough in the distribution to medal ( unless they have big PR's this year ...you never know ...don't count anyone out?).

4. Announce things months ahead of time
Make a calendar at the beginning of the year an stick with it.

Any weightlifter on a real training program will train in 12 week cycles. they will peak every 3-4 weeks. In effect, timing of events are critical so cycles can be planned. This would give athletes the option to pick which qualifiers to go to , including skipping the first qualifier to go to the secondary qualifier.

Again, to be fair to all lifters, and not just those who are "in the know" of USAW gossip, the national calendar needs to be published at least 3 months in advance and easily accessible to anyone with a USAW #.

 

END TRANSMISSION