What we can Learn from Icarus , the documentary on Doping

Some of you may be thinking, “why should I watch a documentary about a guy who got paid by Netflix to experiment with doping. Screw that guy”.   At least, I came across one article on the internet with that title.  Well, the documentary goes quite a bit far beyond that, and there is much we can learn from it.

I was actually pleasantly surprised by the level of suspense the documentary elicited from the real life events unfolding during its filming. 

Cyclist/director/doping guinea pig - Bryan Fogel of "Icarus". Photo from LA Times

What starts off as a documentary on “ prove this system of testing athletes is bullshit” , quickly takes a steep u-turn as a documentary on the Russian “State Sponsored” doping system.  Bryan Fogel, the director/subject of the movie and, also, a high level amateur cyclist, begins the documentary as using himself as a test subject.  He applies the same doping protocol as Lance Armstrong to himself with a team of experts.  Bryan Fogel also enlists the head of the Russian doping lab, Dr Grigory Rodchenko, to consult on his doping protocol such that Bryan will be able to pass all tests.  Again, this is all under the guise of doing a documentary to prove that competing as a doped athlete is possible and is happening, or as Don Catlin, founder of the UCLA Olympic Lab, said in regards to cyclists on the Tour De France “they were all doping, every single one of them.”

As the documentary progresses it occurs around the same time WADA launches an independent doping investigation into the Russian Anti-doping authorities.  Suddenly, Grigory finds himself in the midst of the scandal, whilst another Russian doping official winds-up mysteriously dead from a “heart attack”.  Bryan Vogel is, now, Gregory’s only contact outside of Russia who can help him.   Fogel brings Grirgory to the USA, where Grigory is at risk of being assassinated by Russian authorities and also at risk of being prosecuted by the US Government. Long story short, Grigory alleges that the Russian doping system goes all the way up to Putin with “99%” of athletes doping.

Interestingly, parallels are drawn between the book “1984” and Grigory’s situation of “doublethink”. Some parallels are also drawn between Grigory and Edward Snowden, with the USA and Russia in opposite roles.  Grigory talks about “doublethink”, an act of having two jobs that effectively cancel eachother out- creating sensitive tests to catch dopers and having the responsibility to protect top athletes from testing positive.

Ok, now for why weightlifters or any drug tested athlete might care about watching this movie:

 What did we learn from Bryan Fogel’s experience?

After doing several months of doping, Bryan enters a major amateur race in France.  In part due to a mechanical failure on his bike, he finishes lower than the year before when he competed 100% clean.

What this shows is doping is not a magic bullet. His experiment was to show whether doping would make him an overnight Lance Armstrong—and it didn’t.  There are still many factors that make someone a winner- training, length of doping, dumb luck, genetics.

Recent doping positives at national level weightlifting competitions proves that point. There have been multiple cases of athletes placing far outside the medals who are caught doping.  Many of these athletes started off competing in CrossFit competitions,  a sport which does not have the same resources as USAW to randomly test athletes.  In effect, they took a crack at weightlifting, used drugs, and still registered a less than mediocre performance. 

2.       Why none of us are really that surprised that Russia had state sponsored doping?

Doping has been around before it was doping. 

The use of substances to enhance performance was institutionalized long before there was a WADA. It is something that is engrained on a cultural and government level in certain parts of the world.

There are stories* that Soviets initially learned to dope from top American lifters back in the 1950’s!  Now, in the 1950’s steroids weren’t illegal in the US, and there was no WADA.  The first drug testing didn’t even occur until the 1968 Olympics, and it was highly primitive and non-systemized compared to today.

While steroids gradually became something that were looked upon with ire in mainstream America, it was the Soviets who took it to a state sponsored level and perfected it.   It can be argued that doping followed the ideological models of each country- capitalism and socialism. In America, it’s something that has become privatized with wealthy elitists having the resources and access to carry it out in a highly systematic level.  In Russia, its something the state had carried out and distributed to the greater part of its best athletes.

Further, Soviet state interest in the advancement of sport was tied to the Soviet-USA space race in the 1960’s.  The Soviets, particularly Vrobiev, studied weightlifters in order to find training and recovery systems to apply to Cosmonauts for surviving space flight.  And, in a Soviet philosophical context, if it works then it is good.

Really, drug testing was not as organized as it is today enabling cultural norms of doping to persist

As for Drug testing and the formalization of what is doping, drug testing didn’t really start to get more sophisticated until the 1990’s.   So, when you hear about a legacy of doping going back to 1968 in “Icarus”,  it wasn’t the same context we know today.  

For example, in the 1980’s, the IWF and the IOC actually had two different doping lists, and before major competitions, it was announced which list was going to be used for testing.  Some substances banned by the IOC were not banned by the IWF. Up until about 1983, Testosterone was not even a banned substance by the IWF.    Today, exogenous testosterone is a banned substance. Yet, female to male transgender athletes are allowed to take exogenous testosterone, while non-trans men over 40 are not allowed to take exogenous testosterone despite probably having legit medical reasons to take it.  So, here, even today, we have cognitive dissonance surrounding permitted doping.

Anyhow, WADA wasn’t formed until the late 1990’s. And, it wasn’t until around the early 2000’s, after the BALCO scandal, where WADA declared that an athlete could be sanctioned for new unknown-substances even if they weren’t explicitly called out on the banned substance list.

In summary, there are long standing cultural dynamics and general gray areas around this subject that may explain the persistence of doping at an institutional level.

  

Does this documentary change our attitude towards Lance Armstrong ?

It is a complex situation.   According to public interviews Lance Armstrong made, he doped for years in a highly organized fashion. He doped using private resources. At the end of the day, he even beat athletes from Russia who were likely under a state sponsored program at some point in their career.  And, according to Don Catlin, everybody was on drugs.    

We don’t really know how far down the cycling ranking list we have to go to find a cyclist that wasn’t on drugs.  Note, Lance's stripped wins were never re-allocated to other cyclists on the Tour de France...

Does it change our attitude towards the recent re-tests of 2008 & 2012 Weightlifting Olympic medalists who got popped?

The interesting thing with weightlifting, is that there is far less money to be made in weightlifting than cycling. Athletes who are state sponsored are more likely to be doped because the state will pay out large sums of money for Olympic medals.  On the other hand, athletes from countries where there is little state compensation for medals are less likely to dope. 

So, popping like half of the men’s 94kg class then giving the gold medal to someone in the B session, might still be putting medals into the hands of someone who equally doped or maybe doped slightly less.  It’s underwhelming.  At the same time, there probably are actual weightlifters at the Olympic level who did not dope.

Sadly, the IOC has punished weighlifting for these slew of positives by taking away Olympic slots at the 2020 games. Its almost unfair for the IOC to single out weightlifting and reduce spots when other sports may be just as dirty, especially any sport that brings in money like cycling.

Should you still bother using Soviet Training methods as a clean athlete?

Of course!  Because doping or not, their system still works. Every weightlifting system out there is just derivative of the Soviet system. Its unavoidable.  I've had scores of clean athletes use it and improve.  You can read the "Fundamentals of the Soviet System: the Soviet Weightlifting System" here to learn why.

As Bryan Fogel shows us, doping is a factor and not a magic bullet.  There is no substitute for a solid training system.

What does this say about American weightlifters’ views on doping?

Thanks to USADA and USAW, we actually have an anti-doping system in America.  

American weightlifters don’t like the idea that someone in the session they are lifting against could be doping. 

Still, its complicated. It is a lot like the documentary , also on Netflix, “(Dis) Honesty: the Truth About Lies”.  A low level of dishonesty is almost acceptable, because there are always grey areas.  Big cheaters are not acceptable.

For example, there seems to be sympathy towards a low level of doping, especially when it blurs lines.  Our last Olympic bronze medallist  had once served a 2 year doping sanction for high levels of testosterone/pregnenolone/dhea allegedly from taking DHEA. This doesn’t phase most American lifters because , well, the attitude is that whatever may have caused her high levels of testosterone/etc is no comparison to whatever the Russians must have been on-- DHEA isn’t stanazolol.   It also helped that she actually had a chance at an Olympic medal, and we’ve waited 16 years for one.  (it’s complicated, more info here). 

On the other hand, look at the case of Charis Chan. She showed-up out of nowhere to break the American snatch record in the 53kg class, previously held by Olympic Champion Tara Nott. Public documents show she was suspended for metabolites of trenbolone.  People seemed almost happy when she tested positive for trenbolone.  The level of mocking on social media was probably due to the fact that she was sanctioned for a substance that Americans view as a “real steroid”.  And, She came from the fitness competition circles, having competed at crossfit regionals before lifting at USAW competitions.  Note, that the Crossfit Games has also suspended her for the same amount of time as USADA. 

Then, look at the case of Pat Mendes. He was the first athlete ever to be banned for Human Growth Hormone** in 2012.   

Pat Mendes - photo from USA Today.
 The sinlget he is wearing was made for the 2011 USA Pan AM Games Team by, then USAW sponsor,  Risto Sports 

There seeemed to be no outrage when this occurred, probably because he came from weightlifting.  And, weightlifting people don’t view HGH the same way as stanazolol.  A few years later, he tested positive, again, while competing for Brazil**; it was met with a big sigh from the US weightlifting community.

 So, here we have a very complex model of Americans' views towards doping.

Where do we go from here?

Superficially, it would be simple if no one took drugs ever.

Yet, it's not so simple because there are grey areas and banned substance lists can change. 

It seems unrealistic for state sponsored doping to stop overnight, especially, when success at the olympic level can correspond to presidential approval ratings****.

Really, to see substantial change,  there would have to be both short term incentives for competing clean and short term financial disincentives for doping for all athletes of every country. 

Until then, we might as well be engaging in doublethink.

* rumors that Coach Ivan was told while studying weightlifting and training in the USSR during the 1980’s

** https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/story/2012-04-16/weightlifter-pat-mendes-suspended-hgh/54326514/1

*** https://apnews.com/46235b0ab71944ec8b7301c072fc8e54/pan-am-medical-head-says-8-positive-tests-so-far

****Grigory suggests that Putin wanted a good showing in Sochi , as it would go on to increase his approval rating, giving him the political capital to invade Crimea.

Breaking the World Record- 2017 World Masters Games Championships

I am back in America after 2 weeks between Auckland and Dubai!  I am coming home to America holding the World Record in the Snatch in women's 63kg at 35-39, the Games record in the snatch, and a medal.   I also broke 4 Games records in the process.  

Another highlight was an Australian coach telling me that my article on UCL rehab helped save his lifter's bid at the Australian Junior World Team; it's pretty cool to do a good deed just through writing.

Breaking the World Record and becoming the undisputed best snatcher in the world is a pretty awesome feeling. There are many champions and fewer World Record holders. So, I feel I accomplished my top goal for the championships.

It was a hell of a journey getting here...I had many trials and pulled it all together at the last minute.

The Journey

My journey started back in September. I had just done 80/100 at the Olympia Cup in Vegas,  narrowly missing 83/104 weighing around 66-67kg.  2 weeks later, I attended the 2016 World Masters Championships as coach.  The top 63kg did 168kg; the top 69kg did around 174kg.  Then, I hear the World Masters Games are in New Zealand and the World Records are weights I've lifted more than in the past.  So, why not throw down and try out this whole master thing?

***Know what you are*****

Training was going awesome….until Christmas.  It was somewhere around December 27^th, I had the week off before starting my training for the World Masters Games.  A dear friend of mine invited me to go skiing. He’s an expert skier among other things.  I, on the other hand, can count the number of times I’ve skied. 

I get to the mountain, Its dark. Its two for Tuesdays night skiing.  My friend is late.  I wind up getting on the wrong lift; I couldn’t even see where the lift let off because it was past the top of the mountain.  It was so dark.   It was like the worst theme park ride ever: I’m alone on this slowly moving, rickety wooden thing, barely held in.   Its bobbling along, swinging in the lonely darkness, and I have no idea where its going. I just sit in it, holding on, hoping I don’t accidently slip out to the pile of boulders 50 feet below.  

After realizing that I put myself on a near deserted triple black diamond slope in the dark,  all I can think is "If I kill myself getting down this mountain, my coach is gonna kill me."

Anyhow, being alone, I ski the parts that are reasonable (*cough* no death turns)  and hike down the actual triple diamond parts.  Well, way to jump into it after a year off from only the second time ever that I ever skied on an actual resort hill.

So, I make it down alive, and there is my friend.  I tell myself, I am going home before I get killed.  But…I drove all the way up here and spent money, I'm not going to have a chance to go skiing again until next season.  ....   Anyhow, my friend convinces me that I should stay and let him coach me.

We get off the "smaller" lift which is still fairly advanced because, apparently ,  this ski area only has “difficult hills” open  for night skiing.

At the top of the hill, we are standing to the side, ready for me to be coached. Suddenly, snow boarder plows straight into my friend, taking him out at the heels! This was not a good sign. I had never skied on something that was so icy and fast before. I cautiously ski back and forth on the hill.

He tells me to speed up, that I’m an ATHLETE, WHY IAM I BEING SO WEARY.  GO Faster! I start going faster and faster, and take more risks. Then,  I try an advanced maneuver and wind up digging the tip of my left ski into the hill, pulling my groin. This was a verifiable “oh fuck moment”. Worst part was, I still had to get down the mountain! Only way this was going to happen is if I skied down or hiked- the insult to injury.

I drove the whole way home with plastic Market Basket bag full of snow wrapped around my thigh, telling myself, “I am not a skier, I’m a weightlifter! I am not a skier, I’m a weightlifter".

I didn’t snatch over 70 kilos again until late March.  The funny thing with the groin injury is that I could clean more than my front squat without pain.  Sometimes front squatting anything over 90 kilos didn’t hurt—it would just kill me the next day.   I rode the fine line of training sore and training injured, everyday.  Two steps forward, one step back.

The battle between the negative self talk – “how could I fuck this up”-- and positive affirmations commenced. 

Aside from skiing, there were some other interesting trials and things going on in my life, that, now, lead me to the Florida Space Coast where I will be nowhere near a ski hill!

***which weight class am I?****

With the new weight class rule-- that being lighter has no more advantaged-- being a 69 held less and less appeal.  I have, yet, been able to attain a bodyweight of heavier than 67 kilos and change.  I lifted at the 2016 American Open just to post a qualifying total. weighing around 66kg.  I saw  that the top 63’s were barely touching my snatch attempts from 2014 nationals , my last competition as a 63.  And, now, with my injury, a world record was much more realistic as a 63 than a 69.

 Well, should I have been more focused on winning than world records?
I don’t know. There are fewer world record holders than world champions.  I felt it was only worth competing for a World Record. If you have a World record, you can undisputedly say you are the best at something in the world.   If you are a world champion, you may have just been the best that day.  It’s the same at any level in the sport- youth-senior-junior-master.  Maybe I’m impatient and didn't want to wait to start breaking records.

****Strategy and How I actually lifted***

The startlist showed that 63kg and 69kg were going to be competitive weight classes with top entry totals at 177kg and 204kg.  As always, in seniors and in masters, the 75kg weight class looked like a cake walk compared to the lower 2 classes.  With my leg healing, the strategy was: lift 63kg and close the session, pull everything together last minute, definitely get a world record in.  What we didn't know and couldn't have known is that the 69kg at 204kg total did not show-up to weigh ins.

This was the first meet that I had lifted as a 63kg in almost 3 years.  It was my first meet, ever, as a Master. Judging from the competition field, the strategy was to open light then take larger jumps.   My nearest competitor had lifted at several major championships as a Master (Pan Ams, Nationals) and appeared to be a veteran crossfitter. Actually, it seemed many of the 35-39 US lifters had been crossfitting longer than olympic lifting. 

Snatches went really well. They were so easy.  What's strange is that I actually went to snatch each lift versus just go for a power snatch.  This is actually a safer move since a full snatch, technically requires less energy.  I was fluid.  I put down a solid 73kg.   My competition had a lower lot number so she went first, I followed.  We went to 76, so she went to 76. She took the weight. So, we increased my second attempt to 77kg, a lift I’ve done a million times, just not since September.  This lift would break the prior world record by 2kilos.  I nailed it. 

 Then we went to 80 . I actually didn’t know that my competitor missed 80kg.  I got overly excited and cut my pull. It was easy. I had more in the gas tank.  Honestly, if I am to "Monday morning quarterback",  I think I should have just went to 82kg, because I have done 77-82kg jumps a thousand times, and I might have approached the bar more focused and made it.  I did get to close the session =)

Clean and jerk strategy was tricky.   The safe strategy is to open light, secure the medal, do 3 good lifts, put pressure on the competition.  The risk strategy would be to open light then take big jumps.  l had not cut weight in years, so we were not going to open with my "real opener" in the clean and jerk. Also, judging from the competition, there was a good chance that the safe strategy would work out for the win.  

In the warm-up room, I had so much energy that I felt tired. On the platform, it was a different story.  I FELT AWESOME.  I muscle cleaned 85kg. If I was lifting 69 without a weight cut, I probably would have opened 10 kilos higher, no joke. My 90kg was a toy. I would say the say the lift was a 9 out of 10; I caught it a smidge forward.  I think I had spaced my feet a little too wide in my start positions. 

My third was a debate.  I wanted to save it and jump to 105kg, because that was the World Record.  My coach, on the other hand, didn’t want to take too huge of a jump being I am barley back from injury.  So, we took 95kg, and, like my 80kg, because it was a light weight,   I feel like I rushed my set-up was  and I popped it forward.  Again, just sayin, I really think we should have done a repeat of my 13kg jump at the American Open.  

Call me unrealistic-- because I don't know what the words "realistic" and "impossible" mean.

 At the end of the day,  I really wanted to get a world record and be certain that a I medaled. It turned out, my total was even higher than the 75kg gold total and I would have won 69kgs.  I guess that’s why  my lifts were a World Record breaking performance- because they were good enough to win the next two higher weight classes! 

It also seemed that my story was compelling enough for me to be interviewed on World Masters Games TV.  I really feel that I captured the hearts of the audience.    I  described how I broke the world record after a near career ending injury.   Let me tell you though, if I knew what my competitors were going to say, I TOTALLY would have been like "I've only been competing for 2 weeks as a Master, and this is my first major event EVER as a Master"- that would have been funny as hell. #satire  #icanthelpmyself

There was a nice barbend write-up on this video. I would say, more than "its never too late to start", you can always leverage what you have done in the past to excel at new ventures in life.

The interviewer also asked me about competition training and "rituals" , so I explained how Risto Sports factors into all of that.  They cut out my blurb on Risto Sports (it was germain to his question, and just 5 seconds!! I swear lol) so hear it is:  I wore 2 different pairs of Risto shoes, a Risto singlet, Risto warm-up suit, my new book on the Soviet system has key strategies for training for competition, and I wore Risto wrist wraps in the process of securing the World record, a medal ,and breaking 4 Games records.   Side note, there were a ton of Australian and New Zealand lifters competing in Risto Singlets or Shoes.

Additionally, USAW had a great write-upnas well; it is great to see the organization celebrate successes https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Weightlifting/Features/2017/May/03/Team-USA-Wins-More-than-50-Medals-at-World-Masters-Games

A lot of people ask me if I’m happy.  Yes, I am very happy that I won the snatch world record.  And, I look forward to destroying all the other records, and I would like to do across a few weight classes. 

***What was it like lifting at the World Masters Games ***

The World Masters Games is recognized by the International Olympic Committee.  So, I guess its kind of like lifting at an age specific Games such as  the Youth Olympic Games or the Universiade.  There are many good things yet also many areas that could have been improved.

The filed of play was great. The competition platform had a perfect surface finish.  The lighting was bright and shined-in from the sides.  The audience area was nicely cordoned off by World Masters Games banners.  The audience seemed fairly into the competition. They seemed pretty behind me, which was awesome to feel.  (When I got my medal, I was actually announced as "Gwendolyn Sisto of Australia" if that says anything). The Officials were very professional, helpful, had a great attitude.

**Things that could have improved***

The first thing that could have been improved was training hall.  The venue had ample training areas that could have been used.  There seemed to be about 3 different areas just by the competition area that had training platforms built into the floor.  It would have been ideal to have a section of training hall platforms right at the venue.

Ok, so maybe for some reason the organizers couldn't make that happen. The solution was not that great: basically, an email was sent out with a lift of places offering training, many asking a fee per session, many with only limited time slots. We were basically on our own to figure it out.  

This is problematic as New Zealand is on one of the least populated continents in the world. So, most people would be traveling long distances to this competition. Most people would need to acclimate. Hence, out of any place in the world, New Zealand is one place where would want to have  easy to figure out training timetables and locations all posted and ironed out before the competition.

 Some of the rules were inconsistently applied. For example, there is some rule at Masters that you can always move up a weight class the day of weigh ins; however, the organizing committee sent out an email indicating that the final verification of entries was when the final startlist would be published implying no further changes. 

Then, there is the legless singlet debate. One lifter in the women’s 69kg 35-39 wore a legless singlet and was made to change it or be withdrawn from the competition.

This is the most laughable thing I have ever heard for two reasons: 1—We weightlifters have fought for the right to wear legged singlets and weightlifting suits with sleeves, why would anyone want to wear a retro legless singlet? AND 2- how could legless singlets ever be illeagal? Prior to the early 90’s, there was a rule that singlets could not cover the thighs.

My dear people, do you see how backward the situation is?  The weightlifting community is willing give up its right to have legged singlets and some officials in the IWF are now forgetting that legless singlets used to be the standard mandated for decades.

As a side bar, of course legged singlets give you an advantage because there is less friction on the singlet fabric than skin. But, hey, people do crazy things for style. I’ll probably start making legless ones at some point.

Another improvement area was the disconnect between the world masters games regulations and how the weightlifting competition was run. The World Masters Games website was pretty clear that coaches needed to register for credentials.  Really, only athletes needed to. The weightlifting was run much like a normal Masters meet- the athletes were given a coaching pass. If there was more than one athlete per country in your session, then you totally got shafted on getting a coaching pass if you had a higher lot number.   However, the warm-up room was so spacious, that control on passes wasn't that strict.  So, it seemed everyone got to bring their coach in the back.

*****Drug testing**********

Drug testing went home at like 5 o’clock. Like, no shit, they literally didn't test anyone in the evening sessions day 7.  WADA,  never around when you want them to be.... bahahaha.

Goals and your athletes

"You will find yourself in a place where you want it more for them more than they want it for themselves.  ...when you do for them what they should be doing for themselves, you create entitlement and dependency rather than empowerment"
 - Matthew Kelly, "Resisting Happiness"

The above quote is from the book Resisting Happiness.  It's helped me realize that you can't want something more for your athletes than they want for themselves.

Do you know what your goal is? How hard are you willing to work for it?
Photo by Gwendolyn Sisto. 2016 American Open. Go to www.ristosports.com/blog for more photos

Many times, people walk into to my training center asking to be made into a champion. Yet, are they willing to go all the way and make the sacrifice. Most of the times, athletes seem content to train hard for a solid 6 months.  Somewhere around 6 months, many start complaining that they are too tired to go out on weekends, or that coach told them they can't go hiking on their day off because it will make them too tired to train the next day.

My biggest flaw as a coach is that I expect too much of people. That I take their words of wanting to be a champion at face value. Hence, I  expect them to want to be the absolute best they can possibly be and aim to inspire them to move in that direction.  I assume that they want to be pushed in the direction of their goal, because that's what they said they wanted to do.

This goes back to doing my thesis at MIT.  Every few weeks, I would meet with my thesis adviser. I loved meeting with her, she was so smart and we could talk for hours (if it wasn't for the fact that she was equally busy).  Anyhow, I would bring my latest draft, and , indeed, it would be much better than the last time. But what would happen was, although, I would get affirmation that I improved, I would also get an, " ahh I'm, sensing more chapters" or "this is good, now you just need to flush it out more".

It was a wonderful , beautiful, seemingly unending torture. There was a point where I wanted to write something really good, and I also wanted to balance that with level of effort to graduate. Well, with the inspiration of my advisor and other researches in the lab, it really pushed me in the direction of writing a 150 page thesis ( the average in my major was around 75pages?).  But, you know what, I like being an over achiever. And, it still bothers me when I open up my thesis and see some tiny grammatical errors, or I think of how I could have further developed one idea or another. Art is never done.

I've found for athlete retention that this is not a good approach . If I am going to self reflect, I have been through some difficult trials in life.  So, when an athlete tells me something is too hard, my empathetic reaction is, " Yes, I know, and you can do even more".  And, many people don't want to hear this.

Here is what I run into with many athletes: when they come to Risto Sports, they want to do the hard program, they want to get better. We tell them what they can achieve . And, after the first macrocycle , every single person improves.   But, for some, something happens- they quickly realize they don't want to sustain this same level of effort to keep getting results. Some are happy just to have lifted at nationals- scratch that, most are just happy to have trained enough to go to a national meet, and even better if they win a medal .

The problem is most will not tell you this. Ok, you might say, ''this is my job as a coach to check we're on the same page". But, if someone is paying us to train them for predetermined results, then we will train them as such.

It's up to the lifter to say, "  I want to lift fewer days" or " I'm ok with only improving less than the projected forecast".

Instead, some just quit, and complain that we were too mean.... because we trained them them too hard , and they didn't have enough fun.

This situation is a complete contrast to international lifters who train at Risto Sports. Most will train with no complaints about not going out enough on weekends. Though some may whine during training, most will just complete the program regardless.  And, they seem grateful for the results.  It's important to note that many of these athletes are paid to train and get paid based on yielding results. (I feel like these observations are somewhat opposite of a Millgram experiment I read about- ha)

So, what's the point of this whole article?

Its a cautionary tale for both lifters and coaches.

Advice for lifters:
Be clear about for what you are paying your coach.
- Is it just to increase your total enough to lift at a national meet?
- Is it just to get a little better at lifting so you can win some trophies at local meets?
- Are you just doing this to learn how to lift and get in shape?
- Is it about truly pushing yourself to see how far you can go in the sport?

AND , do your goals match the level of effort you are willing to put in?
- Be honest about how many days a week you want to train
- Be honest about how important your social life is to you
- Be honest if you like to continue doing other sports - like crossfit, kayaking, hiking,...

AND, Lord forbid your goals actually change, or your desired level of effort changes, then:
- Tell your coach!
- Quitting or switching teams isn't going to fix this. It's just as easy, probably more beneficial to you, to have this conversation with your current coach than a new coach you have barely worked with.

Advice for coaches:
Ask more than once what the new lifter's goals are.  Make them flush it out as much as possible.

Be clear about how much effort it will take for someone to reach a goal
- if the level of effort talk seems to scare your potential customer away, then offer them back-up options that they may not be thinking of

Remember, it's not your job to want success more for the athlete
-If they are not doing the heart-emotional-mental heavy lifting as much as the physical heavy lifting, then they need to step it up, not you
- Your job is to inspire

Check in with the athlete after every macrocylce about their goals for the year

If your athletes are not responding to inspiration - ie they're not putting their heart fully into the training, and whine often, then:
- Instead of acting like their over-zealous parent and pushing them, its better to pull them aside and ask them to re-evaluate their goal/level of effort ratio
- Give them options. Come prepared with a back-up plan that might meet their social life needs with reduced results

Finally, a Harvard study showed something like 70%+ of the time people act irrationally, that it is hard wired into us.  Sooooooo.... Good luck!

Thoughts on being more than just one thing, and why it may scare people

I'm tired of people telling me that I do too many things.

I'm tired of people telling me to pick a direction, because I'm pretty sure I'm aimed in one.

Its happened more than once in the last few months.

Is it wrong to want to be good, even great, at more than one thing?

Whatever happened to being a "Renaissance man"?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and throw in a pop culture reference.  I think of the movie Divergent. Actually, it was a series of like 3 movies.  Anyhow, the whole point was there were people who were "divergent" because they didn't fit well into one type of mold. Everyone had to take a test when they were 18 to see which of the 5 career categories they best fit into. People who fit into all 5 or had no strong bias for one category over another were called "divergent" and were stamped out of the system.   SPOILER ALERT: the heroine unlocks some occultish device which reveals lost knowledge, that the true goal of the society was for everyone to be "divergent", for everyone to one day be able to equally do any of the 5 careers.

Call this confirmation bias, but I kind of agree. What fun is it to be just good at math? Or just good at writing? Or just good at one sport?    Can't a person be even great at more than one thing?

I think back to the great artists of the Renaissance- such as Michelangleo and Da Vinci. Leonardo Da Vinci is known for painting the Mona Lisa.  The funny thing is, he was so much more than a painter, he was so much more than an artist.  He was an engineer, an architect, a pioneer in anatomy. Sure these things are different and related at the same time.  To paint people well, it would help to understand anatomy, even if it meant dissecting cadavers in secret when the practice was considered heresay.  To design an incredible building, it would help to understand architecture, and it would help to understand mathematics. This could lead to being able to think like an engineer- he made the first sketches of ornithopters, and he made sketches of gliders, well ahead of his time.   Michelangelo was arguably just as multifaceted.  He was a sculptor, a painter, an architect, and a poet. He was a perfectionist and mostly a self-taught painter. Again, his areas of expertise were similar but slightly different.

So, many people want to put me in a box, and I'm sure this happens to many other people too. To some, they want to see me as just an engineer. To others, they want to see me as just a weightlifter. To others, they want to see me as just an author. Some want to see me as just a coach. Some want to see me as just a weightlifting shoe innovator, etc ,etc, etc..  And I wonder why?

To some extent, society reinforces this.  I see it every time I get interviewed for a news article. It unnerves the interviewer, because they see a news story going in too many directions if they can't just label me as one thing. Many want to reduce a multi-dimensional story into a 1-dimensional narrative, something simple and digestible.

For some people, its easier for them to categorize you if you are just one thing.  It makes them feel warm and fuzzy on the inside to be able to think, "yep, this person is this category. They belong with this group of people. Done. " . Some people even seem to feel unsettled, maybe to the point of fear, when they can't neatly and simply put someone cleanly in a box. Usually, these types of people do not like uncertainty.   Though, what can I say, you can't please everyone.

For some, they genuinely think doing more than one thing will prevent growth and expertise in any one area.  And for that, I appreciate their concern.

Still,  I really think there are some people in this world that really cannot go their life doing just one thing.  And, maybe people like me are just a tiny percent of the population, and , well, I think the world needs us.  Its like that little bit of saffron you sprinkle on rice to get that something extra.
 Saffron costs more per ounce than gold; I can live with being saffron.

Protesters- go to the gym and squat

To all the people that somehow found time to protest the election of Donald Turmp the last few days:
(particularly college students)

I think you really need to start lifting. You would see that excessive walking is counter to your goal of gains. You would value every spare minute you were not in the gym to practice the art of active rest.  Plus, the rest of us trying to get to and from the gym, would not have to worry so much about which streets you are blocking.

Ok, for those of you that feel protesting transcends the basic human need to lift heavy things, here is an analogy coupled with some facts for you to mull over:

The election is a lot like a weightlifting competition. The results and the winner are based on numbers. Sometimes, you go to a competition with the number one total on the startlist, far ahead of anyone else, its pretty much assured that there is no way you can't win.  Then, shit happens. Hey, you blow out your elbow, or maybe you didn't cut weight properly.  Or, maybe, there was just someone who, gasp, actually lifted better than you on that day.

 The point is, we hold weightlifting competitions to see who will actually win, because the startlist isn't always a 100% indicator of who will place how.

So, think of it this way, the polls almost all showed Hillary Clinton ahead. Some said it would be 90+% assured that she would beat Donald Trump.  Well,  just like the startlist, the polls are not a perfect indicator of an election. That's why we actually go out and vote to see who will win. Just like how we go out and lift on the platform versus scoring people on their best entry total.  And, all those celebrity endorsements and SNL skits showing Clinton as the sure win-- those are a lot like youtube videos.  How many youtube weightlifting champions have you seen that never quite compete or put the same lifts together on the competition platform?

Now, the facts show that Trump won the electoral votes by a wide margin, and no one has showed evidence of voter fraud. Actually, some articles show that Clinton won less votes than Barack Obama's past election.

In  a weightlifting competition, sometimes athletes lose competitions because a lift was turned down by a referee.  Its ok to protest a bad call by a referee if you have cause. And, if you really did press-out or elbow touch, or whatever illeagal move in weightlifting, then it only makes you lose credibility to protest a fair call by a referee.  Protesting a fair call is just going to alienate you from the refereees and make it even harder to deal with them in the future.

In other words, protesting a "fairly" won election by Donald Trump is silly.  It comes off as a tantrum. And, calling all his supporters sexist-homophobe-racists is only going to alienate yourself in the long run.

Think about it-more than half of the people who voted , voted for either a 3rd party or Donald Trump.  The total votes for Clinton and Trump differed by 0.4%-- that's practically a statistical tie.  You know how we have tiebreakers in weightlifting- like lot number and bodyweight- well, think of the electoral college as the tie breaker.

Again, for easy numbers purposes, if half the country voted for Trump and half voted for Clinton, then that means roughly half the people you know voted for Trump. Are you telling me half the people you know are sexist-homophobe-racists? Really?  You know by voicing such opinions of half the voters in the country, you may inadvertently cost yourself friends (maybe even job promotions). 

Secondly, do you really think that there are no sexist-homophobe-racists who voted for Clinton?  Extremism- far left or far right- always results in some group to be hated. Maybe some far left people hate a different religion than some far right people.  Finally, if you're 100% sure that all your friends only voted for one candidate, then you need to get out more and meet people with different opinions, races, religions, gender, etc...

You know a really good place to meet a diverse group of people -- the gym. Weightlifting has the most diverse medalists of just about any Olympic sport.

So, next time your college offers a cry-in, or playdoh therapy session to "cope" with the election results, please try squatting double bodyweight for a few reps instead. Or, do what I used to do - workout till my legs were too sore to walk, then study till my eyes were bloodshot.  [ None of the colleges I went to could give two f's about whether I was happy or sad  when George Bush or Barack Obama won their terms (I don't remember anyone protesting either of them). Nope, my tests and projects were going to be due the day after election day regardless. Then again, engineering school has been likened to masochism by some.]

Finally, there is a huge mental side to lifting. Often, lifters have to block out negative external influences. They have to believe they can lift the weight, and block out the naysayers and lifters trying to psyche them out.  Well, I just got an email from an environmental conservationist group saying something ridculous like, " we know you woke-up feeling alone and afraid [the day after the election]". That type of negative garbage prevents forward movement. Maybe, instead of assuming the sexist-gay-racist apocalypse has come,  try actually reading all of Trump's 100 day plan for yourself.  Try looking-up who Trump has assigned to his transition team -- HINT: it includes a woman, a gay man, and a black man.

Save your end of the world protests for when an actual foul has been committed--you know, protest referee calls when the call is actually bad.  You are wasting so much time that could be dedicated to lifting and studying, and you are also making it hard for the rest of us to get to the gym.

Peace and love,

Gwen

Gwenternational Dimplomacy- A Story on Weightlifting abroad

I was coaching last weekend at the World Master's Championships. I needed to get in a work out.  So, early in the morning, Ivan and I arrived at the training hall. It was in an open air basement in the bottom of a the training hall.  It was literally a biergarten (beer garden?) with some curtains put up to divide the training platforms from the beer drinking. It was Oktoberfest.

Giant Weightlifting hay monster, greeting you to the World Master's Training Hall

There were a total of 3 platforms and 1 squat rack. Two women's bars and 3 men's bars. This, again, was for a world championship. It seemed the beer drinking during Oktoberfest had taken priority over getting some training in.

Beautiful Ruins near Heinsheim, Germany Bad Rappenau , taken from the Competition Hall parking lot

I was training alongside lifters from Japan, Australia, and France. Turns out the French guys, who I spoke to in French, knew the coach at the gym I often frequented while in France.

Then a lifter from Norway came over, and she proceeded to do about an hour of mobility WOD work with the bar at the edge of the warm-up area. Maybe not the best use of space given the crammed quarters, and, well, I probably would not recommend any of the exercises she was doing for a lifter about to max out the next day.  But, hey, she's not my lifter...and, you know the code, do not coach others who do not lift for you, unless their coach/they asks for your help.

About halfway through my workout, a team of Iranians and 2 IWF Iranian Referees came over to train. The Referees were more there to hang out and watch training. The Iranian team is all male as weightlifting is generally not seen as a sport for women to do. They seemed to move as a team.

Because I try to be a decent human being --really, people, I try-- I offered for them to work in with me. There were no open platforms; it was now just me on the platform, and there was a free men's bar.  I felt obligated to help another weightlifter get their training in; this urge to accommodate other weightlifters transcended any realization that I was a Western women in tight work out clothes offering them help.

So, we started working a rotation.  My work out called for me to go up to 90kg power clean and push jerks.  At this point, one of the older men in the background said to me, "Mashallah".

The training hall really was an open air basement with fancy tarp segregating it from the beer garten

To which I replied, " Inshallah."  I had learned from my Muslim friends the relationship between Mashallah and Inshallah, and I automatically equated them to one another. With inshallah meaning, "God Willing" (in some ways, when you're asking God to help you make something happen) and Mashallah meaning to thank God or express gratefulness, particularly, after something you had once had expressed "inshallah" about. Maybe like "praise be to God, Alleluia", sort of?

Anyhow, he seemed happy that I clearly knew these two words - mashallah and inshallah- then he promptly corrected me.  Then said, "No.  Mashallah- Thank God" ,and sort of gestured to the bar I just lifted.

"Yes, mashallah. I understand".

I then asked my coach,"Should I go up to 95kg?", to which my coach in almost unison with the  Iranian lifter and referees answered , "No. no, stop there". I was starting to lift more than some of their male lifters, which perhaps was the root of this request.

I went back over an conversed a bit more with the elder Iranian.  He seemed to be in his 60's.  He wanted to make it clear that I should be grateful to God for my good lifting.  The Iranian referee chimed-in and gestured "gold medal" to me.

The elder Iranian commented, " You not woman, you boy... Are you boy or girl?"

"Umm, I'm a female."

Seeing the dismay on my face, he corrected, "This is joke. 'Are you boy or girl' "  .

Somehow, I was to understand that this was a compliment. In his culture and even American culture, we are taught that women are not supposed to be as strong as men or strong at all. So, he was saying, "you are very strong".

At this point, many people would have been mortally insulted and walked away.  Now, I have been called worse things, and this man was clearly trying to somehow compliment me. So, why walk away? Even in our current world of "micro-aggression", where back-handed compliments like this should send me off to a safe-space, I opt to seek to understand before being understood.

We talk for a few more minutes, and it rapidly descends to who will I vote for in the coming presidential election (he called Trump crazy, with the classic crazy hand gesture to the head, where one swirls their index finger around their temple. He was not much more enthusiastic about Clinton.).  It always amazes me to see how much people from other countries follow the US election. I make it known that I must depart for my lifter competes later that day.

Tug of war statue in downtown Nackersulm, Germany, near the meet hotel. Metaphor, anyone?

Once again, being respectful of fellow lifters, I hand out business cards. One of the younger lifters (40ish) seems eager to receive one.  The elder gentleman I spoke with indicates that it is not good for him to receive one.  Yet, I gestured that the card was of no value to feel embarrassed by, that it was only valuable in what it symbolized- respect through acknowledgement of my fellow human being's existence.

In my culture, when I make a new acquaintance and had a good conversation with, particularly in a formal manner, then I will give out a business card (if I remember to bring them with me).

Treading the line of cultural acceptance is always tricky. I 'm not sure if I insulted or caused embarrassment over a behavior. There were also a couple times when I thought I was supposed to shake hands, and sensed fairly quickly that touching was out of the question.

Earlier that week, I had been in France where acknowledging ones existence is paramount to showing respect. At work, you must shake a person's hand upon greeting them the first time that day. If you see them a second time, you must remember to shake their hand, again, or it is seen as disrespectful-- that they were so unimportant that you forgot that you already shook hands. What is more bizarre is that this is for every person you run into at work -everyday.  It is not just for someone who is visiting for a business meeting, it is literally everyone in the plant.

I was just talking to French people before my interactions with the Iranians.  So, not only did I had to switch languages, I had to also switch behaviors.

Navigating this cultural sea has its rewards. By making an effort to meet people half way in what seems like odd behaviors to you, you actually build bridges of understanding. and, when you are out to learn as much as you can about weightlifting around the world, it comes in handy.

I'm not saying this is something everyone should do, All I'm saying is, if you are feeling enlightened, then, yes, make an effort, and what you learn from these transactions are reward enough, And, maybe you will build a network a little bit in the process.

Finally, we must not overlook Context.  In this circumstance, a key factor to building these cultural bridges was Sport.  Weightlifting, like all other sports, has a common language and sets of behaviors. All weightlifters around the world speak the same language- weightlifting . We don't even realize that we have this new mystical, intuitive way of communicating until we are forced to use it in a training hall with non-English speakers. This is also why weightlifters get so touchy when people from other sports flood-in and try to rapidly add new behaviors-- the weightlifting culture is universal, world-wide, established over a century and enables our ability to communicate cross-cultures because of a common set of behaviors.

Women's 35-39 69kg winners. Risto Sports lifter Jessica Weisman brings USA home the Silver Medal

Of Weightlifters Passed- the persistence of memory

Is it normal that a bunch of your weightlifting friends and acquaintances will die in their early 30s? And is it normal not to fully know why?

I just found out former weightlifter and dear friend of mine Amanda Wilson just passed away. 

To understand my disbelief, we have to talk about USAW’s Junior Squad. 

Back in the late 90’s, there was this thing called Junior Squad.  Every year, the best junior lifters in the country were sent all expenses paid to the United States Olympic Training Center (OTC) in Colorado Springs, Colorado for a 2 week training camp.  There was a boy’s camp and a girl’s camp held at separate times.  Under the guidance of the now famous Coach Burgener , or “Coach B”, the girls camp trained. This was also in the era when Lynn Jones, Dragomir Ciroslan, and Bob Morris coached at the OTC. Every other year, we were given a new USA warm-up suit with “National Junior Team” printed on the front of it and “USA” printed on the back of it.

I made every team from the first ever full team in 1997, until 2000. By 2001, I was at Georgia Tech studying my ass off and not bothering to compete at Junior nationals. 

 

Several of those junior squads, I met or even formed relationships with a number of lifters who would impact me forever.  Several of them would die before the age of 35, several of unclear causes. Lifters from this late 90s era with whom I crossed paths that befell this strange fate of an early death included: Corey Wilkes, Robert Murphy, Andrew Garcy, Anthony Martin, and, now , Amanda Wilson.

My dear friend Amanda Wilson is the latest to have passed on. Though we had communicated for years, even recently, the last time I had saw her was at the 2008 US Olympic Trials held at GA Tech in Atlanta. She was no longer competing and came to see her friends, including myself, compete.

Interestingly, also in 2008, was the last time I would see my friend Andy Garcy.  I competed at a final World University qualifier at the US OTC in late 2008.  At the time, he had coached a youth lifter female who was practically cleaning double bodyweight (almost 60kg weighing almost 30 something kg, if I recall??). Yes, I think he would have went one to be a great coach.

It is funny how memory works.  Recently, I made a new friend that bared only the very slightest resemblance to my friend Andy Garcy, maybe he conjured only the slightest of analogous feelings.  Days later, suddenly, I could remember in detail the face of Andy, strangely associated with my new friend.  A month ago, I wouldn’t’ have been able to do so.  And, now, just days later, my friend Amanda passes.

As memory seems to be more of a network , a web of slightly related topics linked together- something hardly linear-- I might as well discuss my two unrelated friends in a related way, in the way that I associate with them in my mind.

The first time I really got to know Amanda was at the 1998 Junior Squad. It was my second JR squad, so the OTC didn’t quite contain the same magic it first had.  We got along pretty well.  We liked opposing baseball teams. We eventually went to opposing colleges. We would make jokes about eachother’s states.  She liked preppy cloths; I ‘m more rock and roll, and, nowadays, I often enjoy wearing Ralph Lauren to be ironic and live out a New England fantasy.  But, you know what, she was always someone that I could go and talk to. Like if you’re in a crowd of people, and you’re not sure to hang out with, or who to talk to, Amanda was always a person I could hang with. Like that person that’s there for you and won’t leave you out there alone. A person that will always be your friend and not treat you like a passing fad.  She wasn’t one of those annoying fake nice people, or fake-caring people; she was authentic.  

She was a very talented lifter.  When I was at GA Tech, I went to watch her at a weightlifting competition that CJ Stockel had put on in college park Atlanta. She did something like 160kg or 165kg total that would have put her on the junior world team (I was sad to see that she didn’t do quite as a well a few weeks later at Junior nationals).  Amanda could really lift well when she was on, and she was pretty damn strong too.   She was lifting for Coffee’s Gym.  I always looked-up to the strong women of Coffee’s Gym; probably why, I would at one point compete for Coffee’s Gym (she actually encouraged it years before I did).  I would see her at multiple Junior Squads as well as multiple times in Georgia by virtue of going to GA Tech and here living a couple hours away. By the way, don’t get your hopes up my Ramblin’ wrecks—she was a UGA fan (her only flaw ?;).

Andy was also a good person. He was a talented weightlifter, and he just so happened to be gorgeous. Seriously, I can substantiate the gorgeous claim with fact: once Rolling Stone did an article on athletes that trained at the OTC, and, guess what, Andy happened to be one of the few athletes profiled. At the time, every month a Rolling Stone magazine came to my house, and , holy shit, one day, I opened-up Rolling Stone to see Andy staring back at me!  

He became my friend when I went to Junior Squad, as he was a resident athlete at the OTC. The first Junior squad I ever went to was the inaugural full girls team junior squad in 1997. Going to the OTC for the first time was like magic!  Wow, I got to lift where Wes Barnett and Pete Kelley and Tim McRae lifted. I got to hang out with some of the resident athletes- wow, could they be the next Olympians too?!

This was before I realized that not everyone who lives at the OTC ever becomes an Olympic athlete or even an Olympic medalist for that matter. That was before I realized that there were many much more mythical weightlifting places in the world. Either way, I really looked-up to every weightlifter who lived there. For a brief, moment in USAW history, they were like the weightlifting chosen ones in America…yeah, that didn’t last long. It seems this way when you are an adolescent, but as you become wise to world, you learn, once again, that they are just human and other mythical human creatures exist outside the walls of the OTC.  Even Peschalov once told me that he was “only human”, and he was one of the greatest Olympic champions of the 1990’s/2000’s.

Regardless, Andy was my friend.  He was always nice and respectful to me, and I don’t think he ever got enough credit for how much of a good person he was.  Again, much like Amanda, he was an authentic person.  I watched my first ever Adam Sandler movie with Andy and my friend Catherine at the OTC—this was when Adam Sandler movies were still a thing.  I will forever remember the feelings of watching “Happy Gilmore” for the first time with them; it was one of Adam Sandler’s masterpieces, even better than “Billy Madison”.  Ironically, Amanda and I did see and Adam Sandler movie together with the Jr squad kids: “Big Daddy”.    Andy was also the reason I had met Blaine Wilson, a quasi-famous American gymnast who recounted stories to Andy in the cafeteria as I listened on.  The following year I casually knodded to Blaine as Amanda introduced herself, noting that they shared a last name though they were unlikely related (she really wanted to meet him). Anyhow, like Amanda, I would also see Andy at another subsequent junior squad and national competitions. Then it would be several years till I would see him a few last times in 2008. 

As I reflect on my weightlifting friends, it is probably why I don’t write much about American weightlifters, because its too personal. I don’t like to write about my close friends, nor really the OTC. Perhaps, because, the mystique I once had for places like the OTC had long left my soul like a mist evaporating in the morning sunlight.  To me, the OTC had become just another place devoid of that magical realism type qualities you only find in a Gabriel Garcia Marquez book. Maybe the OTC was special for a tiny speck of time when just the right combination of people were there.

Statistics- How good are the US Women versus the World?

Weightlifting is full of data.  We can do many statistical analyses to interpret who our best lifters are and how they stack up versus the rest of the world with readily available continuous data.

In celebration of the Olympic year, this article examines the distribution of female weightlifter totals by weight class, and the percentile which the current top US woman in each weight class would score.  Using descriptive statistics, we can understand the level of competitiveness the US women and have insight on which females are best positioned to medal at the Olympics.

Method:
The dataset for each weight class was obtained from the IWF Olympic individual qualification rankings.  Specifically, the IWF dataset for individual qualification includes only the highest total registered for an athlete from every Olympic qualification event since 2014 through the present.  Further, there is one athlete total per weight class per country-- it is not the complete ranking list with every single athlete from every country that has competed internationally.   So, for example, Jenny Arthur is the highest totaling US 75kg in the last 2 years, so only her total out of all US 75's that competed internationally, is shown.  This is actually a better way to do the rankings since a country can only enter a maximum of two athletes per weight category, and, at the Olympics, no country can send a full team.  In effect, it is highly unlikely that a country with prospects of medaling in multiple classes will send 2 athletes in the same weight class. Outliers were not cleaned form the data as these stats are from actual people who lifted at actual weightlifting championships.  Plus, it would not be rational to remove the top lifter or even the worst lifter from the data; it makes physical sense that they should be outliers in many cases.

For comparison, the current USAW Olympic ranking list was used to compare US totals to the World ranking list.  To be consistent with the IWF ranking list, the top US total from each woman's weight class was compared to the IWF list, and the percentile rank was calculated. 

Results and Analysis

What the world looks like on the whole by weight class:

First, let us take a look at the distribution of totals by weight class across the world.

Here is a dotplot of each total in each weight class. The dotplots show the frequency at which each total occurs.  So a really high stack of dots means that multiple lifters hit a certain total; itt is the same idea as a histogram.  The dotplot is a little bit better visual to see frequencies, hence it is utilized.

 

The data tells us which weight classes have very large variation and hint at whether the data is normal (normality test must be done to confirm).

For example, the 48kg weight class seems to have the tightest distribution of the classes. This may be the effect of bodyweight --that there is no class lower than 48kgs for which to compete in, hence athletes can only move up and not down from this weight class.  Interstingly, the data is marginally normal; an Anderson-Darling normality test yields a .06 p-value.

In terms of medals, the data shows a clear favorite for the gold medal evidenced by the top total being in an echelon of its own.  Silver and bronze, however, are anybody's game as the athletes are so tightly clustered between 2nd through 8th place.

On the other hand, the 75+kg weight class has the most variability. Although at a first glance, the data looks non-normal, an Anderson-Darling normality test shows it is a normal dataset with a p-value of .307. 

More interesting are the top 2 totals in the 75+kg class- Tatiana Kashirina's 348kg total and Lulu Zhao's 334kg.  Kashirina's total is almost a full standard deviation from 3rd rank (Graboetskaya of Kazakhstan).  It can be implied that there are two lifters truly vying for Gold and silver at the Olympics, assuming both lifters are healthy, compete, and total at the Olympics.  Such can be said for the bronze medal between the 3rd, 4th, and 5th ranked athletes who are grouped around a 300kg total.  The remaining athletes are around 280kg or less. 

Here is where 75+kg, gets really interesting-- again, countries can only send a max of 4 female athletes to the Olympics. Its highly possible that not all the athletes in the 300kg total grouping will even show-up at the Olympics. It then makes the bronze medal anybody's game around the 280kg total mark.

The 75kg class is another fascinating weight class because it just doesn't have the same depth as the other middle weight classes (53,58, 63, 69,75) . Like 75+s, it has clusters of high totals, then a whole chunk of athletes over  a standard deviation away from the top. It is one of the easier weight classes.

69 women's appears to be the most competitive class for winning an Olympic Gold medal as there are 6 athlete totals in proximity to the first place total.

How the US women rank

This May, US women will be competing at the Olympic Trials in Salt Lake City, Utah for Olympic slots. The USA currently has 3 Olympic slots for women. 1 slot has already been designated to our top 75kg lifter, Jenny Arthur.  Mattie Rogers and Sarah Robles are ranked in the remaining 2 slots, per USAW's site.

The data can be examined rather easily for: (1)our best lifters in each weight class score versus the rest of the world, and (2) which athletes would be the top 3 in the USA based on their percentile rank in their weight class.

1. How US Female lifters score in their weight class on the IWF rankings

Per the below table, Mattie Rogers scores the highest across all weight classes with an 86th percentile rank.  Sarah Robles is in the 84th percentile, and Jenny Arthur is in the 82nd percentile.

The next closest lifter, Lucero, is in the 65th percentile. Interestingly, Morghan King scores equally well as a 53kg or a 48kg with  58th and 56th percentiles respectively.

2. Athletes best positioned to medal, or place the highest
The data shows us that Rogers, Robles, and Arthur are really in a grouping of their own at this point. The data supports the US ranking system which has all 3 currently projected to make the 2016 Olympic Team.

That being said-- this can all change should any of the other lifters on this list, or even any lifter competing at Nationals for that matter, have a huge Personal Record. The lower weight classes are more sensitive to change as, well, the totals are smaller. So, Morghan King might have the best chance of upsetting the 3rd ranked Olympic team spot should she have a big PR. For example, a 188kg total as a 48kg would put her in the 84th percentile.  However, by the USAW Olympic Games qualifying totals, King only needs 174kg to bump Rogers.

In this case, one could argue that the USAW ranking system has some deficiencies, which will always happen when rankings are based solely on percent of an average qualifying total. As mentioned in previous articles on this site, the population cannot be described by an average alone.

Weight Class	N	Maximum	Mean	StDev	Minimum	Q1	Median	Q3	Top US female		Percentile
48	52	205	164.13	23.07	91	153.5	163.5	180.75	170	KING	56th
53	58	233	178.43	25	104	157.75	181.5	194	184	KING*	58th
58	62	252	183.35	36.09	75	165	190.5	205	199	LUCERO	65th
63	61	261	195.66	35.95	75	180	197	214	206	MYERS	63rd
69	57	268	208.02	33.5	115	190.5	209	230	238	ROGERS	86th
75	53	292	215	35.93	120	193.5	217	238.5	244	ARTHUR	82nd
75+	46	348	228.85	54.37	126	189.25	232	264.5	279	Robles	84th

The last table is the USAW current Olympic Ranking for female's. The USAW ranking method based on averages has the following athletes in spots 1 through 3:  Robles, Rogers, King.  Note Arthur is not even in the Top 3 per this method.    This differs from the percentile method where, again, the ranking would be Rogers, Robles, and Arthur per the same data.

PATH 1	PATH 2
RANK	RANK	NAME	CREDITS	<=2000	CAT	BWT	COMP	TOTAL	OG/100%	%
1	1	Robles	2	1988	75+	148.01	15WWC	279	290	96.21%
2	2	Rogers	2	1995	69	67.74	16NJCOQ	238	256.4	92.82%
3	3	King	4	1985	48	47.73	15WWC	170	186.6	91.10%
4	*	ARTHUR	3	1993	75	74.65	15WWC	244	269.2	90.64%
5	4	Winters	1	1993	48	47.97	15WWC	165	186.6	88.42%
6	5	Chan	0	1987	53	52.84	15AO	187	212	88.21%
7		King	4	1985	53	50.44	16NJCOQ	184	212	86.79%

Conclusions

Based on the current US female totals, the data clearly shows that the US female athletes with the highest percentile score are Mattie Rogers, Sarah Robles, and Jenny Arthur in that order.  This implies that these would also be the USA's best chances of medaling, although a more complex model can be created to forecast medal potential.  Just going by raw ranking, all three lifter would place about 8th or 9th on the IWF ranking list. And, considering that countries cannot send full teams to the Olympics, these 3 women would be likely to score even higher at the Olympics assuming they do the same or greater total.

 

Secondly, the data supports the USAW decision to give Jenny Arthur an early qualification to the US Olympic Team.

 

Thirdly, the data tells us that the USAW may have a more accurate and fair model of ranking their athletes should they use percentiles of the IWF ranking list and not percent of an average.  The current ranking system gives a positive bias to the 48kg weight class and gives an negative bias to the 69kg weight class among others.  

 

Sarah Robles at the 2012 Olympics,
singlet by Risto Sports, official 2012 sponsor of podium attire